Quantitative edition
BreakingPolessya3-1FC KharkivFT

The model has no opinion. It calculates.

We work out how many goals to expect in a match, turn that into probabilities, and compare them with what the bookmaker is paying. We only flag value when that gap survives four checks.

Enter Delta
Anatomy of a pick

Market

+2.5 Goles

Model prob.
0.0%
Market prob.
0.0%

Edge

+0.0%

Suggested stake

0.0%

High confidenceQuarter Kelly, capped at 3% of bankroll

An example of the output format. The thresholds are the ones the engine applies in production.

How we get to a call

The method

Five steps, always in the same order. If any of them runs short of data, no value is flagged.

  1. Expected goals

    First we estimate how many goals each side should score — what is known as expected goals, or xG. We look at up to six different sources, starting with the most complete and dropping down only when data is missing.

  2. Probabilities

    From those expected goals we work out how likely every possible scoreline is. That gives us the 1X2, both teams to score and each over/under line, all from the same calculation (a Poisson distribution).

  3. Corners and shots

    These get their own separate calculation: how many corners and shots each side tends to create and concede lately, adjusted for possession, shot volume and blocks.

  4. Where the value is

    We compare our probability against the odds on offer. Four filters throw out anything that does not hold up: weak conviction, gaps with the market that are too large to be real, edges outside a sane range, and thin data.

  5. Proportional exposure

    Whatever clears the filters gets an exposure size proportional to the gap, always cautious and capped at 3%. It is a model reference, not an instruction. Whatever does not is still shown, along with the reason we passed on it.

Delta in numbers

The figures

Data sources per call
0Data sources per call
Filters before flagging value
0Filters before flagging value
Live match refresh
0sLive match refresh
Exposure cap per event
0%Exposure cap per event
Leagues and cups covered
+0Leagues and cups covered

What we analyse

  • 1X2
  • BTTS
  • Over/Under 1.5
  • Over/Under 2.5
  • Over/Under 3.5
  • Córners 5.5–12.5
  • Remates a puerta 5.5–12.5

Model versus market

The odds radar

Every featured fixture of the day, placed by the probability the model gives it against the probability the odds imply. The line is perfect agreement; whatever sits off it is where the model and the bookmaker disagree.

Radar example
Market → ModelValue

Example scatter, not live odds. Points are illustrative.

  • One dot per fixture: model probability on the vertical axis, odds-implied probability on the horizontal.

  • Above the fair line the model sees more chance than the price pays. That is the value we look for.

  • Below it, a paginated ledger with every reading logged exactly as it was calculated — right or wrong.

See the radar

Which competitions we cover

The coverage

We analyse matches from more than 50 leagues and cups, from Europe to the Americas. If a competition is here, you can open any of its matches and see the full analysis today.

Coverage moves with the calendar: competitions come in when their season starts and drop out when it ends.

Start with today's match

Open a match.
Look at the numbers.

Every match goes through the same process, with no favourites and no VIP lists. And when no event carries value, we say that too, along with why we passed.

See today's matchesCreate a free account. No card.

Delta analyses probabilities: it does not take bets, connects to no bookmaker, and gives no advice. We publish analyses exactly as the engine ran them, right or wrong. 18+ only.