The Radar: where model and market disagree
One chart, one diagonal line and a lot of dots. The only thing that matters is which side of the line each one falls on.
The Radar is Delta's simplest screen and the hardest to explain in words, because it's a picture. Once you understand the line, it reads at a glance.
The diagonal line
On the chart, each dot is one of the day's analyses. Its horizontal position is what the market believes; its vertical position is what our model believes.
The diagonal running across the chart is the line of perfect agreement: a dot sitting on it means model and market think exactly the same thing, and there's nothing to do there.
Everything interesting is off the line.
Above the line
A dot above the line means the model believes more than the market does. It's the only zone where there can be value for you, because you're being paid a price built for something we consider more likely.
The higher it sits, the bigger the disagreement. And the size of the dot shows how much edge that disagreement is worth at the current price.
Below the line
A dot below means the market believes more than we do. You won't see picks there, and it's shown anyway on purpose: displaying only the flattering half of the chart would be telling you half a story.
It's also a warning. When our model sits well below the market on a match, it usually means the market knows something we don't.
Why the gap matters more than the dot
The vertical distance to the diagonal is the difference between the two opinions. That's what you're actually measuring.
A dot high on the chart isn't interesting for being high: an outcome with an 80 % probability sits near the top even when the market prices it at 80 % too. What you're looking for is separation, not height.
The list underneath
Below the chart sits the same content as a paginated table: match, market, what the model believes, what the market pays, and the difference.
It exists for two reasons. The first is accessibility: a chart can't be read by a screen reader, a table can. The second is that sometimes you want the exact number, not the visual impression.
How to read it in ten seconds
- Look for dots clearly above the diagonal. If there aren't any, today is quiet.
- Among those, look at the ones furthest from the line, not the ones highest up.
- Open the match and check the minimum odds before deciding anything.
The Radar doesn't tell you what to bet. It tells you where to look.