How the model works
Short guides on how a prediction is calculated, how to read a pick and how to look after a bankroll. No jargon, no promises.
How Delta decides a match has value
Everyone watches the same matches. The difference is the method that turns a match into a number. Here is ours, step by step.
How to read a pick in 30 seconds
Edge, model probability, minimum odds, confidence and stake. What each number on the card means, and which one saves your bankroll.
Stake size matters more than being right
Bankroll, variance and bet sizing. Why the best analysis in the world won't save you from bad money management, and how to tell if your method works.
The words you'll see across Delta
Expected goals, edge, minimum odds, implied probability. The minimum vocabulary for understanding every number you see, with no separate dictionary.
The Brief: five picks every morning, never edited
Every day at 09:00 the model publishes five picks and seals them. What The Brief is, why it's public, and why it can't be edited.
The Radar: where model and market disagree
The Radar plots what Delta believes against what the market pays across the day's matches. How to read it in ten seconds.
The markets we switched off
Both teams to score, corners and double chance are gone. They weren't wrong — they were right at a price that didn't pay. Here's what that means.
See it running
Every morning the model publishes five picks and seals them. It's public, and the verdict on each one stays up — hit or miss.
Open The Brief