The words you'll see across Delta
Ten terms, one sentence each. No jargon for its own sake — only what actually appears on screen.
You don't need maths to use Delta, but it helps to know what each word on screen means. These are the ten you'll meet, roughly in the order you'll meet them.
About the match
Expected goals. The quality of a team's chances translated into goals. If a side creates a lot and scores little, the statistics say that tends to correct itself. It's the first number everything else comes from.
Form. A team's last five results, weighted towards the recent ones and adjusted for the quality of the opponent. Beating the bottom side isn't worth what beating the top side is worth.
Head to head. Previous meetings between those two teams. In Delta only the last ten years count: football from two decades ago doesn't pay today's bets.
Rotation. When a team has another big fixture in three days, they probably won't name their strongest side. The model knows before you do.
About the market
Odds. What you're paid per unit staked. A price of 2.50 returns 2.50 for every 1 you put down, your stake included.
Implied probability. The probability hidden inside a price. Divide 1 by the odds: 2.00 implies 50 %, 4.00 implies 25 %. It's what the bookmaker thinks will happen.
The bookmaker's margin. The prices on a match never add up to exactly 100 %: they add up to more, and that difference is the bookmaker's profit. Delta strips it out before comparing, so the comparison is fair.
Sharp money. Strong, sustained moves in a price. When a price moves like that, somebody with information is getting involved. It guarantees nothing, but it leaves a trail.
About the decision
Edge. The difference between what our model believes and what the market pays, expressed as expected return over the long run. It's the reason a pick exists at all.
Minimum odds. The price below which that pick stops being worth taking. If your bookmaker gives you less, stay out: the edge isn't there any more.
Two warnings about the vocabulary
Hit rate and profit are not the same word. A market can land often and still lose money, if what it pays is low. Whenever you read "wins X % of the time", always ask "at what price?".
None of these terms means "certain". They all describe probabilities. A high probability still fails part of the time, and that's exactly how it's supposed to work.