Wednesday, September 16, 2026

The Brief

5 selections today, ordered by the size of the gap the model sees. The numbers behind each one are in the match analysis.

selections
5
sealed
09:00:38
Hit
FC LuganoFC ST. Gallen4–1

FC Lugano
FC ST. Gallen

Super League · 05:00 PM

Over 3.5 goals

FC Lugano has been producing regularly in attack and FC ST. Gallen arrives with a productive attack. FC Lugano concedes little at the back; FC ST. Gallen leaves gaps at the back; the model projects an open game. The full breakdown of the match is in the analysis.

HIGH
LDU de QuitoPalmeiras3–2

LDU de Quito
Palmeiras

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 10:00 PM

Under 9.5 shots on target

LDU de Quito is going through a lean spell in front of goal and LDU de Quito concedes little at the back. Palmeiras has been firm defensively; the model projects a tight game; the model expects a corner-heavy game. The full breakdown of the match is in the analysis.

HIGH
Atletico-MGSantos4–2

Atletico-MG
Santos

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 10:00 PM

Away +1.5 (Asian handicap)

Santos has been firm defensively and the model projects a tight game. The model expects plenty of shots on target; Atletico-MG arrives with a congested calendar; Santos has piled up fixtures in a few days. The full breakdown of the match is in the analysis.

Hit
AIK StockholmMjallby AIF1–1

AIK Stockholm
Mjallby AIF

Allsvenskan · 05:00 PM

Home +0.5 (Asian handicap)

AIK Stockholm has been producing regularly in attack and Mjallby AIF has barely been generating goals. Mjallby AIF leaves gaps at the back; the model projects an open game; the model expects plenty of shots on target. The full breakdown of the match is in the analysis.

Miss
BotafogoGremio3–2

Botafogo
Gremio

Serie A · 10:30 PM

Under 3.5 goals

Botafogo is going through a lean spell in front of goal and the model projects a tight game. The model expects a corner-heavy game; the model expects plenty of shots on target. The full breakdown of the match is in the analysis.

This brief was published on September 16, 2026 and has not been edited. The reasoning you read before kickoff is the reasoning you read now.

This is not investment advice. Please gamble responsibly.